Property Guardian launches wildfire timing scores for insurers

Property Guardian on Nov. 5 launched Wildfire Susceptibility Scores, a property-level product that aims to show insurers not only where wildfire risk is high, but when it is likely to return. The tool is designed to help carriers and MGAs sharpen underwriting, renewal and portfolio decisions in wildfire-exposed markets.

Why it matters: - Property Guardian is trying to solve a gap in wildfire underwriting: most scores show where hazard is high, but not when the next event is likely to happen. - The timing view is meant to help insurers stay selective in places where wildfire risk is due and compete more aggressively where recent burns have temporarily lowered near-term risk. - The product is aimed at transactional underwriting, renewal decisions and book management across wildfire-exposed portfolios.

What happened: - Property Guardian launched Wildfire Susceptibility Scores on Nov. 5 for carriers and managing general agents. - The company says the new scores add a timing layer to property-level wildfire risk, focusing on when fuels are ready to burn again. - The product is available through Property Guardian Direct and the Susceptibility Scores API. - Qualified carriers and MGAs can request no-cost sample scoring on part of their portfolio. - More information is available in Property Guardian's product page.

The details: - The model uses more than 800 fuel classes to track post-fire regrowth cycles. - Chaparral can recover in a couple of years, while conifer forest can take much longer. - The scores cover all 50 states, including Hawaii and Alaska. - The system draws on more than 800 fuel classes and 125 years of wildfire history. - Each score ties back to fuels, wildfire history and wildfire cycle so underwriters can explain the rating. - The scores refresh every two weeks. - Each refresh adds newly burned areas and updates Recurrence Risk. - The company says unlimited-use licensing is based on quote or submission volume. - The product can be used as a standalone triage screen or as an augment to existing data. - Property Guardian says the scores do not estimate loss severity, assess structure survivability or credit on-parcel mitigation. - For those needs, the company points to its Wildfire Resiliency Score and Wildfire Risk Insight Reports.

Between the lines: - Property Guardian is differentiating its product from static wildfire models by splitting risk into two questions: where the hazard is and when it is likely to reemerge. - The pitch is especially relevant for insurers that want to keep writing business in fire-prone regions without treating every recently burned area the same. - Property Guardian is also positioning the product as an explainable underwriting tool, not just a black-box score. - In its validation work, the company says scores were frozen before the 2025 wildfire season and tested against what actually burned. - The company reports that 92% of the land that burned in 2025 had been rated High or Very High Hazard Risk, while those ratings covered 38% of the country. - On previously burned land, properties rated Very High Recurrence Risk burned 21 to 29 times as often as those rated Very Low in backtests from 2010 to 2025. - Property Guardian says Hazard Risk outperformed a leading commercial wildfire score in concentrated property areas, including the wildland-urban interface. - The company says accuracy held 1 to 15 years ahead, suggesting the scores are meant for both new business and renewal decisions. - Full methods and results are available in Property Guardian's validation white paper.

What's next: - Property Guardian is inviting carriers and MGAs to test the scores on their books and request sample-portfolio evaluations. - The company is betting that a faster, timing-aware view of wildfire exposure will help insurers act before the market fully prices in changing conditions.

The bottom line: - Property Guardian wants to turn wildfire underwriting from a static hazard check into a moving clock.